Chelsea's Progress Under Pochettino: A Statistical Analysis

Chelsea's Progress Under Pochettino: A Statistical Analysis

Mohammed Kudus of West Ham United is consoled by Mauricio Pochettino, Manager of Chelsea, following the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and West Ham United at Stamford Bridge on May 05, 2024 in London, England

By Alex Keble

9 May 2024

Introduction:

In the wake of Chelsea's recent convincing victories over Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, many pundits have hailed Mauricio Pochettino's impact, suggesting that the club is finally moving in the right direction. However, a deeper analysis reveals that Chelsea's progress under Pochettino has been ongoing since the beginning of the season.

Understanding the Numbers:

Despite fluctuations in results, Chelsea's underlying performance metrics have consistently placed them among the top teams in the league. Opta's Expected Points (xPoints) table, based on Expected Goals (xG) values, consistently positions Chelsea within the top four, indicating that they have regularly outperformed their opponents in terms of creating chances and limiting opposition opportunities.

Tactical Adaptation:

Pochettino's tactical philosophy, influenced by Marcelo Bielsa, is evident in Chelsea's playing style. The team excels in pressing, vertical passing, direct dribbling, and deploying an aggressive high defensive line—characteristics synonymous with Bielsa's approach. Statistical analysis corroborates these observations, with Chelsea leading in metrics such as through-balls played, attempted take-ons, and passes per defensive action.

Resolving Scoring Woes:

Chelsea's struggles in front of goal have been well-documented, but recent performances indicate a turnaround. Improved finishing from players like Nicolas Jackson, coupled with the impending return of Christopher Nkunku, suggests that Chelsea's attacking potency will only improve in the coming season.

Defensive Challenges:

Defensive lapses have contributed to Chelsea's conceding goals beyond expectations. However, injuries and lineup instability have been significant factors. The absence of key players like Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile has disrupted defensive cohesion. Furthermore, goalkeeper injuries have led to inconsistent performances between the posts.

Looking Ahead:

Despite these challenges, there are reasons for optimism at Chelsea. The imminent return of injured players, coupled with potential summer signings, could bolster the squad significantly. Full-back reinforcements, particularly the return of loanee Ian Maatsen, could enhance Chelsea's attacking threat and address issues against deep-lying defenses.

Conclusion:

Chelsea's resurgence under Pochettino has been gradual but steady. While their current league position may not reflect their underlying performance, statistical analysis suggests that Chelsea is well-positioned for future success. With tactical coherence, improved squad depth, and a maturing team, Chelsea supporters can anticipate a more promising campaign in 2024/25.